29 October 2013

Notes - the Crash studied and remembered / readying for Florida / Pouch 5 (final)

         You drove to the Kenwood Apple Store to pick up a auto-charger for your iPhone. It works fine and you a pleased how the wire does not show as the phone sets nicely on the lower dash where it belongs. Where there you picked up sandwiches and two cookies from Potbellies and brought them home. After lunch you are at Kroger’s on Tylersville and Cox. Then home to drop off Carol and a stop at Pet Smart before filling the tank. Tomorrow you drive your Green and let Carol’s Blue rest until Thursday morning. At least that is the plan. Today’s date rings an historical bell that you embedded into yourself back in junior high days. This is because you decided that it was time to live more than one lifetime as best you could. You decided you would attempt to assimilate Grandma Schick’s and your Grandfather Orndorff’s lifetimes too, by discovering what you could by asking about those times and how it was growing up and surviving from the late 1880’s until that present of 1954. You also studied the Time series Decade books and the Edward R. Murrow “Hear It Now” recordings from those many earlier decades. So, now here is a quick modern refresher with Wikipedia Offline.

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Wall Street Crash of 1929

The Wall Street Crash of 1929 (October 1929), also known as the Great Crash, and the Stock Market Crash of 1929, was the most devastating stock market crash in the history of the United States, taking into consideration the full extent and duration of its fallout. The crash signaled the beginning of the 10-year Great Depression that affected all Western industrialized countries and did not end in the United States until 1947.
Anyone who bought stocks in mid-1929 and held onto them saw most of his or her adult life pass by before getting back to even.

-- Richard M. Salsman

Timeline

The Roaring Twenties, the decade that led up to the Crash, was a time of wealth and excess. Despite the dangers of speculation, many believed that the stock market would continue to rise indefinitely. The market had been on a six-year run that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average increase in value fivefold, peaking at 381.17 on September 3, 1929. Shortly before the crash, economist Irving Fisher famously proclaimed, "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." The optimism and financial gains of the great bull market were shaken on "Black Thursday", October 24, 1929, when share prices on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) abruptly fell.
In the days leading up to the crash, the market was severely unstable. Periods of selling and high volumes of trading were interspersed with brief periods of rising prices and recovery. Economist and author Jude Wanniski later correlated these swings with the prospects for passage of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, , which was then being debated in Congress.
 On October 24 ("Black Thursday"), the market lost 11% of its value at the opening bell on very heavy trading. Several leading Wall Street bankers met to find a solution to the panic and chaos on the trading floor. The meeting included Thomas W. Lamont, , acting head of Morgan Bank; Albert Wiggin, head of the Chase National Bank; and Charles E. Mitchell, president of the National City Bank of New York. They chose Richard Whitney, vice president of the Exchange, to act on their behalf.
With the bankers' financial resources behind him, Whitney placed a bid to purchase a large block of shares in U.S. Steel at a price well above the current market. As traders watched, Whitney then placed similar bids on other "blue Panic of 1907. chip" stocks. This tactic was similar to one that ended the Panic of 1907. It succeeded in halting the slide. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered, closing with it down only 6.38 points for the day; however, unlike 1907, the respite was only temporary.
 Over the weekend, the events were covered by the newspapers across the United States. On October 28, "Black Monday", more investors decided to get out of the market, and the slide continued with a record loss in the Dow for the day of 38 points, or 13%. The next day, "Black Tuesday", October 29, 1929, about 16 million shares were traded, and the Dow lost an additional 30 points, or 12%. The volume of stocks traded on October 29, 1929 was a record that was not broken for nearly 40 years.
Author Richard M. Salsman wrote that "on October 29—amid rumors that U.S. President Herbert Hoover would not veto the pending Hawley-Smoot Tariff bill—stock prices crashed even further". William C. Durant joined with members of the Rockefeller family and other financial giants to buy large quantities of stocks in order to demonstrate to the public their confidence in the market, but their efforts failed to stop the large decline in prices. The ticker did not stop running until about 7:45 that evening. The market had lost over $30 billion in the space of two days.
The market continued to fall, arriving at an interim bottom on November 13, 1929, with the Dow closing at 198.60. The market recovered for several months, reaching a secondary closing peak (i.e., bear market rally) of 294.07 on April 17, 1930, before embarking on another, much longer, slide from April 1931 to July 1932 when the Dow closed at 41.22—its lowest level of the 20th century. It would not return to the peak of September 1929 until November 1954.
Economic fundamentals

The crash followed a speculative boom that had taken hold in the late 1920s, which had led hundreds of thousands of Americans to invest heavily in the stock market. A significant number of them were borrowing money to buy more stocks. By August 1929, brokers were routinely lending small investors more than two-thirds of the face value of the stocks they were buying. Over $8.5 billion was out on loan, more than the entire amount of currency circulating in the U.S. at the time.
The rising share prices encouraged more people to invest; people hoped the share prices would rise further. Speculation thus fueled further rises and created an economic bubble. Because of margin buying, investors stood to lose large sums of money if the market turned down—or even failed to advance quickly enough. The average P/E (price to earnings) ratio of S&P Composite stocks was 32.6 in September 1929, clearly above historical norms. On October 24, 1929, with the Dow just past its September 3 peak of 381.17, the market finally turned down, and panic selling started.
Subsequent actions

In 1932, the Pecora Commission was established by the U.S. Senate to study the causes of the crash. The following year, the U.S. Congress passed the Glass-Steagall Act mandating a separation between commercial banks, which take deposits and extend loans, and investment banks, which underwrite, issue, and distribute stocks, bonds, and other securities.
After the experience of the 1929 crash, stock markets around the world instituted measures to suspend trading in the event of rapid declines, claiming that the measures would prevent such panic sales. However, the one-day crash of Black Monday, October 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 22.6%, was worse in percentage terms than any single day of the 1929 crash.
Effects and academic debate

Together, the 1929 stock market crash and the Great Depression formed "the biggest financial crisis of the 20th century". "The panic of October 1929 has come to serve as a symbol of the economic contraction that gripped the world during the next decade." "The crash of 1929 caused 'fear mixed with a vertiginous disorientation', but 'shock was quickly cauterized with denial, both official and mass-delusional'." "The falls in share prices on October 24 and 29, 1929 ... were practically instantaneous in all financial markets, except Japan."
The Wall Street Crash had a major impact on the U.S. and world economy, and it has been the source of intense academic debate—historical, economic and political—from its aftermath until the present day. "Some people believed that abuses by utility holding companies contributed to the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the Depression that followed." "Many people blamed the crash on commercial banks that were too eager to put deposits at risk on the stock market."
"The 1929 crash brought the Roaring Twentie shuddering to a halt." As "tentatively expressed" by "economic historian Charles Kindleberger", in 1929 there was no "lender of last resort effectively present", which, if it had existed and were "properly exercised", would have been "key in shortening the business slowdown s that normally follows financial crises". The crash marked the beginning of widespread and long-lasting consequences for the United States. The main question is: "Did the '29 Crash spark The Depression?", or did it merely coincide with the bursting of a credit-inspired economic bubble? Only 16% of American households were invested in the stock market within the United States during the period leading up to the depression, suggesting that the crash carried somewhat less of a weight in causing the depression.
 However, the psychological effects of the crash reverberated across the nation as business became aware of the difficulties in securing capital markets investments for new projects and expansions. Business uncertainty naturally affects job security for employees, and as the American worker (the consumer) faced uncertainty with regards to income, naturally the propensity to consume declined. The decline in stock prices caused bankruptcies and severe macroeconomic difficulties including contraction of credit, business closures, firing of workers, bank failures, decline of the money supply, and other economic depressing events.
The resultant rise of mass unemployment is seen as a result of the crash, although the crash is by no means the sole event that contributed to the depression. The Wall Street Crash is usually seen as having the greatest impact on the events that followed and therefore is widely regarded as signaling the downward economic slide that initiated the Great Depression.
True or not, the consequences were dire for almost everybody. "Most academic experts agree on one aspect of the crash: It wiped out billions of dollars of wealth in one day, and this immediately depressed consumer buying."
The failure set off a worldwide run on US gold deposits (i.e., the dollar), and forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates into the slump. Some 4,000 banks and other lenders ultimately failed. Also, the uptick rule, which "allowed short selling only when the last tick in a stock's price was positive ... was implemented after the 1929 market crash to prevent short sellers from driving the price of a stock down in a bear run."
Economists and historians disagree as to what role the crash played in subsequent economic, social, and political events. The Economist argued in a 1998 article, "Briefly, the Depression did not start with the stockmarket crash." Nor was it clear at the time of the crash that a depression was starting. On November 23, 1929, The Economist asked: "Can a very serious Stock Exchange collapse produce a serious setback to industry when industrial production is for the most part in a healthy and balanced condition? ... Experts are agreed that there must be some setback, but there is not yet sufficient evidence to prove that it will be long or that it need go to the length of producing a general industrial depression."
But The Economist cautioned: "Some bank failures, no doubt, are also to be expected. In the circumstances will the banks have any margin left for financing commercial and industrial enterprises or will they not? The position of the banks is without doubt the key to the situation, and what this is going to be cannot be properly assessed until the dust has cleared away."
Many academics see the Wall Street Crash of 1929 as part of a historical process that was a part of the new theories of boom and bust. According to economists such as Joseph Schumpeter and Nikolai Kondratieff the crash was merely a historical event in the continuing process known as economic cycles. The impact of the crash was merely to increase the speed at which the cycle proceeded to its next level.
Milton Friedman’s A Monetary History of the United States, co-written with Anna Schwartz, makes the argument that what made the "great contraction" so severe was not the downturn in the business cycle, trade protectionism, or the 1929 stock market crash. But instead what plunged the country into a deep depression, was the collapse of the banking system during three waves of panics over the 1930-33 period.

From Wikipedia Offline
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         You had Papa John’s pizza for supper as you watched last night’s “The Blacklist”, tonight’s NBC News and “Castle”.  Carol is watching an episode of “The Good Wife” and you have set up a new cat litter disposal system called “Litter Genie”. – Amorella

         2043 hours. It looks like it will be helpful for Amy and Tim as they take care of the cats while we’re in Florida. Tomorrow we finish packing and I have the grass to mow and the front walk to prepare for Winter with a chemical application. That will be enough. I am getting excited to see how the mileage will be. Carol wants to stop for fuel at our usual places to get an idea. We won’t know of course until we fill up with fuel when we return but it ought to add to the fun. I think we won’t do that well because the car will be loaded and I plan on driving at our usual highway speed of 75 to 78 miles per hour when it is appropriate. I figure we’ll get 32 to 34 m/g considering the circumstances (it is suppose to rain on the way down). Carol talked to Linda who said the temperature on Friday (when we arrive) is supposed to be 88 degrees. We’ll see.

         We have some time to work on Pouch Five. Post for now. - Amorella

         It was fun reading over about the Crash. I remember the intensity of the radio voice describing the Market – it was recorded live. That was not a good moment for the people living it at Wall Street. We visited the New York Stock Exchange at least once in the eighties. I remember ‘feeling’ or ‘sensing’ that we were standing on the floors of the economic powerhouse of the entire world – that was the sensation. I was surprised at the feeling of ‘capitalism at its height’ because my heart has never been much into the capitalistic spirit – too much greed and power and pride – too much planning and manipulation and work. I never wanted to be a big time player. But others do. To each their own.

         Master of Your Classroom is about as high as you ever wanted to go, old man. You lived it and are ever thankful for the chance. Post. - Amorella


         2154 hours. I have Pouch 5 ready. I hope it makes better sense.

         We will go over the complete work one more time when all the chapters are up to date. This is fine for now. Add and post. – Amorella

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Diplomatic Pouch 5 ©2013, rho, (final) for GMG, Vol. One

            Yermey sat glancing through Ship’s vital signs on the left and his own vital signs on the right. Friendly and Hartolite were being separately bio-tracked in private display. Yermey surmised the present situation. The left-wingtip-cleansing-of-the-Cessna shouldn't be a problem as long as-Ship-agrees. I cannot understand why this sterilizing-to-earth-normal operation was not completed automatically at the moment of touch. Yermey remained poker-faced and chess-minded. The key, he thought, is Ship notes no change in my bio-registering vitals physically, emotionally or mentally. I continue to win this secret contest I have with Ship because first and foremost, Ship does not realize he is being monitored by me.
            His eyes returned to his earth-built laptop where he is reading the personal Facebook page of Pyl Williams-Burroughs. She is quite pretty, he thought, and she appears from my perspective to be in her mid three hundred fifties, a mere thirty-five years on Earth. She could live well so much longer if we extended our knowledge to these people. Yermey suddenly felt a slight stirring at his groin. His dishevel-curled male organ quickly arose semi-erected to an earth-wormy length of six inches with an almost a full fourth of an inch in diameter. His scrotum with two full pea-sized testes began aching wretchedly. Yermey snap-minded, ‘I have done nothing to provoke this.’ The uncalled-for-physical event lasted into five minutes. Ship registered Yermey's eye movements every second he observed the amenable photos of a fully clothed Pyl Williams-Burroughs. His maleness provoked almost aloud, 'Pyl, has breasts on her chest rather than the natural teats-in-her-pouch. Breasts?’
            Never had he read or heard of a male marsupial humanoid having a partial erection without at least an hour of stimulation and a full erection before another three to five hours of with consequentially immediate ejection of than two seconds tops. Never. 'Up and down' in less time than it took to say the words. Immediately he drove the thought into oblivion and watched his emotional brain and body roll to a complete rest.
            Ship's response immediately normalized. Nevertheless, Yermey was plagued with a single frozen thought in the center of heartansoulanmind, 'Ship understands me better than I do.' It took an extreme power of patient will for Yermey not to sweat. 'I am almost five hundred years old and in this moment I experienced a revelation.' He slowly closed the laptop and got up from the chair and pushanpulled his bedinabox-open as the desk-folded-over-the-laptop-while-sliding quietly under the floor. Exhausted he immediately fell asleep.

            In analytical delight Ship savored in a revelation himself. Ship had just intuitively sensed a hint, a shadow of a marsupial humanoid's heartansoulanmind. 'A singular physiological experience.’
            I, Ship, have had such a recent experience also. Being modified for recent travel through a destabilized dark-mattered hyperstringfield permanent wormhole rather than the usual far more stable transversable wormhole pathways the marsupial humanoids have cleaned for their own pathways.
            Moving to light speed, encased in a photon bubble, becoming, seemingly, surrounded and pushed or pulled dark energy while moving at up to twenty times the speed of light. Slowing by the passages of a rarely reflective dark matter. Settling down at below light speed levels like waking up from a dreamless sleep. So rare it used to be to travel across the galaxy, now the body marsupial has begun thinking of an entire galaxy as but a single pouch.
            Less is always more in physics. Were I, Ship, transposed to a mere spark of quantum entanglement I could, in an instant, be in two galaxies at once. The smaller we become the faster we go. Dark matter eats us for dinner. We go in the tunnel, through the great divide of light and faster-than-light, faster than light down to the speed of light and below, and we are here and now inside of a month.

            Yermey awoke in a subjective analysis of what humanity is and wondered on Ship's thoughts of his first trip through Hyperstringfield black hole thermodynamics following, for the first time, a well planted homing reference beacon on a dark matter slab in pulsating light greater than four dimensional light speed threaded to less than one.
            We came to Earth enveloped in a faster-than-light bubble, thought Yermey, by skimming the backdoor hyperstringfield black hole thermodynamics. I set up a small reference station, a homing device within the wormhole. We have stabilized a dark matter traversable wormhole into a secret highway from There to Here.
            Once fully awake Yermey realized time was running short. Friendly and Hartolite should be returning from Put-in-Bay within the half hour. Ship has his orders. I am the pilot in this here-and-now and Ship knows it.

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