Late morning. You did your forty minutes of
exercises; this time there were no interruptions. Gayle and Mary Lou are not
here yet, much to your surprise. You went downstairs to visit and found Carol
and Linda watching The View and quickly decided to return to the MacAir. –
Amorella
1109 hours. The focus was on Bill Cosby. In some ways the
United States is like a small town where everyone wants to know everyone else’s
business. I remember the gossip on the telephone back in the late forties and
early fifties, -- shoot, right up into the sixties. But then Westerville was
getting too big – lots of new people the old Westerville people didn’t know
anything, or not much anyway, about. Large or small towns are full of human
nature – ants carrying their workload quietly and responsibility and hissing
roaches getting into everyone’s business one way or another – ant and roach all
in one. Such is life on the human plain of existence – beginning in Africa and
moving, insect-like, around the world. Rootless and ongoing Homo sapiens who
are doing damage by shear numbers and yet consciously attempting to save the
native, non-humanoid world all at the same time. Necessity will win out, no
matter what the future course.
So, Fate is not in the stars, boy; it sits
here keeping the species company? – Amorella
1121 hours. I reason so, though Fate/Necessity is hardly
a pet-like companion. The concept is well within our awareness.
You made three bowls of baked beans and
turkey wieners mix for supper then everyone snacked on peanut M&M’s you
bought at Kroger’s (not on the original list). Tomorrow Kim comes. Carol
suggested that when you go up to Westerville Thursday you stay over at Kim and
Paul’s and return Friday morning. You have decided to take the Honda as it is
now well prepped. Tonight the three of you watched two episodes of “Poldark” from
PBS Masterpiece Theatre. You all like the series so far. Carol has been doing
her exercises in an organized fashion with today, a few times, standing by the
kitchen island doing things and forgetting about using the walker. She did use
it, but you like that she is feeling more and more comfortable without it from
time to time. – Amorella
2224
hours. I remember the old adage that necessity is the mother of invention and I
wonder what that has to do with us as a species. What will necessity have us do
within this century that we are not at present ready to do?
You realize this question cannot be thought
out because the circumstance needed for change has not yet arrived to the point
where something must be done. – Amorella
2228
hours. Today on Quora a question was asked about how it will be in the world in
the next 75 years and four stories were told as a response. I did not think
there was much creative thought applied – rich v. the poor, AI taking over; end
of humankind – that sort of thing. I am looking for a real Seldon Crisis.
Below
are examples of a Seldon Crisis as seen the Asimov’s Foundation Series.
** **
Seldon Crisis
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A Seldon
Crisis is a fictional socio-historical phenomenon in Isaac Asimov's Foundation Series of science fiction novels.
They are part of the field of psychohistory,
and refer to a social and political situation that, to be successfully surmounted,
would eventually leave only one possible, inevitable, course of action.
They are named after Hari Seldon, who founded
the field of psychohistory, and who appears as a pre-recorded hologram at the climax of
each crisis. Before his death, he used psychohistory to predict and manipulate
each event. A Seldon Crisis usually involves both an external pressure (such as
threat of attack) and an internal pressure (such as threat of revolt). Both
pressures will come to a head simultaneously, and be resolved with the same
action.
Known Seldon Crises
There
are at least eight Seldon Crises.
The Balance-Of-Power Crisis
Encountered
fifty years after the foundation of the Encyclopedia Foundation Number One, as
the Foundation was originally known, the surrounding areas of the Galactic
Empire had rebelled and declared themselves independent kingdoms. The new
nations were known as the Four Kingdoms, the largest of which was the Kingdom of Anacreon.
The new barbarian kingdoms would inevitably try to absorb the militarily weak
and resource-poor First Foundation, with Anacreon actually establishing a
military base in an unoccupied portion of Terminus as a prelude to
outright annexation. The solution to the Crisis was, as Hari Seldon said in his
first recorded message to the Foundation, obvious; as the only source of atomic
power in the Periphery (as the edge of the galaxy was known), to allow any one
Kingdom to gain control of the Foundation would be tantamount to suicide on the
part of the other Kingdoms, as such a move would quickly be followed by the
annexation of the rest of the Kingdoms. Thus, the three other Kingdoms united
against the Kingdom of Anacreon, jointly ensuring that no nation assume control
of the Foundation and forcing Anacreon to recall its soldiers. In this and the
next crisis, the Foundation was guided by Salvor Hardin.
•
External Crisis - Secession of
Periphery from Galactic Empire, threat of conquest by the Four Kingdoms.
•
•
Internal Crisis - Failure of
Imperial Government (Encyclopedists), replacement by bloodless Coup of Terminus
populace (Salvor Hardin, Yohan Lee)
•
•
Resolution - New Terminus
democratic government under Mayor Salvor Hardin, Anacreonians left Terminus
under group-threat by other three Kingdoms. Foundation maintains independence
thanks to its value as a source of high technology, at this time principally
Atomics.
•
Religion
Occurring
approximately thirty years after the first Crisis, the Kingdom of Anacreon,
still the largest of the Four Kingdoms, once again planned to conquer the
Foundation in order to gain its technological resources. Having grown in power
since the original Crisis, even the other three kingdoms united were not enough
of a deterrent to forestall attack. Aware that this was always a distinct
possibility, the Foundation had since spread a cult of science through the
barbarian kingdoms. Providing technological aid to the Four Kingdoms in a
further attempt to forestall hostility, the Foundation had withheld all
scientific explanation on the functioning of their technology, the equipment
was operated by technicians who only had an empirical knowledge of the science
surrounding the feats that were accomplished. Furthermore, the technicians and
populace were indoctrinated into a religion that placed all science within the
realm of magic and Terminus in the role of a religious capital. This religion
was ingrained deeply enough into the mentality of the populace that the common
people of the kingdoms would oppose any attack on Terminus by their leaders
because it would be regarded as "sin," and the soldiers of Anacreon
rebelled when they learned what their leaders were planning.
•
External Crisis - Rising strength
of Four Kingdoms, particularly Anacreon, due to Foundation industrialisation.
Aggressive and fearful Royal Families wish to annex Foundation, a movement
which Regent Wienis spear-heads.
•
•
Internal Crisis - Formation of
Actionist Party, chaired by Sef Sermak, demanding impeachment of Mayor Hardin
for appeasement of Four Kingdoms.
•
•
Resolution - Royal Houses are
dissolved, and the land re-distributed under Sef Sermak. Mayor Hardin remains
in power, but his Council is almost exclusively of the Actionist Party, which
ends appeasement and puts the Four Kingdoms under complete Foundation control.
•
Trade alone
With the
use of religious awe the Foundation managed to maintain control of the Four
Kingdoms for the years after the second Crisis and, through the use of
missionaries who spread the religion to other nations, managed to assume
control of Askone, a distant stellar system. However, the barbarian kingdoms
outside of the original four heard news of the subversion of the populace by
the presentation of atomic science as religion and denied all religious
missionaries entry. Thus, though the religion was successful in preventing
further attacks from the Four Kingdoms, it provided no means of offense against
hostile nations. Hober Mallow,
one of the Foundation's Traders, who were essentially economic pioneers who
attempted to open doorways for the priesthood by getting foreign governments to
accept atomic technology, saw that the religion had reached the end of its
usefulness and began to operate on the principle of trade alone, selling atomic
technology without spreading the religion along with them. The Republic of Korell, ruled by Commodor
Asper Argo "The Well Beloved," refused entry to the Priesthood, but
engaged Mallow in standard trade practices. When Korell, supplied with ships of
war from the dying Galactic Empire, attempted to wage war upon the Foundation,
they had already traded with the Foundation to the point that most of their
infrastructure was based on Foundation-derived nuclear technology that they
could not duplicate. Following an embargo, they quickly surrendered.
•
External Crisis - The appearance
of a power hostile to Religious conquest, and with Atomics as well as Imperial
backing for those same weapons—the Republic of Korell. Willingness to attempt
conquest of the Foundation, whose high technology has, however, now made the
aggressive power dependent on its intended target. The result is a stalemate
due to frozen economic relations during war-time.
•
•
Internal Crisis - The
conservative bureaucracy of the government attempting to control the Foundation
and Terminus using Religion when this is now a spent force, used by Jorane
Sutt, with the result that the dominant force in Foundation Politics now
becomes plutocratic, with the beginning of the Era of the Merchant Princes,
Hober Mallow being the first. Political control of the Foundation is now only
possible by economic means.
•
•
Resolution - At the end of an
Economic Cold War, Korell submits without violence to Foundation rule. Mallow
is a revered figure for this achievement, and is mentioned in the same breath
as Seldon and Hardin in Foundation History and Legend. However, with political
forces becoming weaker in the face of economic forces, the stage is set
politically for the next Crisis—contact has been re-established with the Empire
by Mallow on a visit to Siwenna, and the effectiveness of political leadership
is on the wane.
•
Foundation and Empire
The time
came when the remnants of the Galactic Empire, mighty even in decay, attacked
the Foundation directly in an all-out war. This came in the form of General
Bel Riose, a loyal servant
of the Galactic Empire, when Riose learned of the Foundation's eventual plan
for its own Empire. Fearing the danger they presented to the state, and wishing
to satisfy his own desire to embark on a war of conquest, Riose attempted to
conquer the Foundation in the name of the Empire. His attempt very nearly
succeeded, the combat destroyed half a thousand Foundation ships and killed
half a million Foundation men, with Riose penetrating to the very heart of the
original Four Kingdoms. Despite superior Foundation technology, Riose was able
to routinely defeat the Foundation through brilliant strategic moves and
superior resources. Ultimately, however, Riose was recalled by the Emperor Cleon II and executed on
charges of treason and subversion, charges that ultimately proved to be false,
due to the political makeup of the Empire during its decline. Because of the
almost routine revolutions, rebellions, and assassinations within the Empire, a
"strong" Emperor could only remain so if he had no subordinates
capable of challenging him, and Riose's actions presented him as a credible
threat to the Emperor.
•
External Crisis - the dying lash
of violence of the Galactic Empire, led by its last strong General, Bel Riose,
backed up in turn by its last strong Emperor, Cleon II. The culture, though in
decay, is still mighty in resource and military strength.
•
•
Internal Crisis - Lack of any
political leadership. At this time the Foundation has no political leadership
to speak of, and thus no formative strategy for dealing with the menace of the
Empire. Many figures represent growing power blocs—the increasingly independent
Foundation Traders under Lathan Devers, a growing bourgeoisie such as Ducem
Barr, and such plutocrats who move power behind the scenes as Sennett Forell.
•
•
Resolution - The Empire is
defeated due to its own inadequacies, and the Foundation wins only due to
tenacity rather than inspired leadership or administration. This sets the stage
for the next Crisis—the seizure of the Foundation by an unscrupulous and
tyrannical Plutocratic family, and the rising numbers of Independent Traders
growing more distant from their home-worlds, while advancing and spreading
Foundation technology across the Galaxy.
•
Independent Traders vs. Central Aristocracy
As the
Foundation expanded with no further opposition, from the Empire or anyone else,
its central authority began to suffer the same faults as the decaying
government of the original Galactic Empire. The Mayoralty, previously a
democratically elected position, became an inherited title after Indbur, a man
described as both brutal and capable, seized the office in a military coup. By
the time of Indbur III,
the grandson of the original Indbur and a man described as a bookkeeper in the
wrong profession, the government had become an aristocracy reminiscent of the
barbarian kingdoms the Foundation so often came in conflict with. In an effort
to "spread the wealth more," over two dozen outer planets of the
Foundation's trade hegemony/empire planned to lead a revolt against the central
aristocracy. Though ultimately a military failure, the rebellion of the
Independent Traders would have insured the spread of social reforms throughout
the Foundation and the return to the democratically elected government of the
past.
However,
the Fifth Crisis did not occur as predicted. The Independent Traders were
going to revolt as predicted, but stopped when the galactic conqueror known
only as "The
Mule" began his invasion of all Foundation territories. This
resulted in the rapid defeat of the Foundation fleets, the fall of Terminus to
the Mule, the quick fall of the trader-world Haven, and eventually all
Independent Traders. The Mule operated completely outside the Seldon Plan
because Psychohistory operated only with probabilities and known human
statistics, but the Mule was a mutant, and thus his birth was not predicted by
Seldon, nor were his startling mental abilities. The Mule possessed the ability
to understand and control the emotions of humans, capable of instilling
feelings of love in his enemies and "Converting" them into loyal
followers. One of the central tenets of Psychohistory was the belief in
standard human reaction to outside stimuli, which the Mule negated, and the
practice of dealing with masses of people, not individuals; an individual
capable of altering the Seldon Plan could not be calculated. With the arrival
of the Mule, it was theorized that the Seldon Plan had been ruined and, if a
Second Empire were to still arise, it would not be as predicted.
Fortunately
for the Plan, the Second
Foundation, which had been formed to correct any damage the Plan
sustained, managed to defeat the Mule and was able to reconstruct the Seldon
Plan.
Seldon's Projection (Deviated by The Mule):
•
External Crisis: Spread of
technology and market forces gives enough wealth to the Independent Trading
Worlds such as Haven, Mnemon, and Iss to group together in order to form
Armadas with enough strength to challenge the increasingly weak political
tyranny of Terminus. The forces of the Traders are allied with Democratic
forces inside the Foundation itself.
•
•
Internal Crisis: Growing
Bureaucracy attendant on an hereditary succession of Mayors has reduced both
the Mayor's full authority, and flexibility of government. The Foundation
remains mighty economically, but has weakened dramatically. The Foundation Navy
contains numerous Democratic cells intent on aiding a democratic rebellion from
without.
•
•
Resolution: Seldon predicted that
the Civil War would force a stalemate so that Democratic reform would be forced
upon the Foundation through combined victories of the Independent Traders as
well as a revolt in the Foundation Navy. The growing Bourgeousie would thus
turn on the growing Aristocracy, and force reform by force of arms, and by a
demand for recognisation of expatriate citizenry. The Fall of the Foundation
prevented any of these events from following according to the Plan's
provisions.
•
Moving the capital
Almost
500 years after the founding of the Foundation, after the Foundation Federation
had expanded to include one third of the galaxy, there were arguments that the
capital should be moved closer to its center than the current capital at
Terminus, at the very edge of the galaxy. However, in the end the capital on
Terminus was retained.
Moving
the capital was explicitly stated to be the eighth Seldon Crisis: the
intervening sixth and seventh crises were not described.
Selected and
edited from Wikipedia
https://en.wikipediaDOTorg/wiki/Seldon_Crisis
** **
2250
hours. We have to have an External Crisis and an Internal Crisis, which then by
necessity have to be resolved. I do not foresee a Seldon Crisis as such but
what would be one or two situations/circumstances that would force the majority
of the world to respond? Nothing that could be resolved short term other than first
surviving the change taking place.
I
think of the Jews leaving Germany in the 30’s. Social change is sometimes
quicker than one thinks. I am curious to think one of these out. Goes back to
teaching my Futures Studies/Science Fiction class I suppose. I wonder on the
future of the world for the grandchildren and great-grandchildren of the world.
Shoot, perhaps we will just entertain ourselves to the death of civilization.
You are concerned but this is built into the
Merlyn stories, boy. Merlyn too wonders on these things, particularly after the
recent Second Revolution in HeavenOrHellBothOrNeither. Don’t you see this, boy?
– Amorella
2301
hours. No, I don’t think I do, Amorella. In real life I don’t think much about
the Dead and how they can effect the Living. The Living are the only ones that
can really effect change, not the Dead in real life.
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